PROJECTS & RESEARCH

Scenario thinking workshop

Jan 2011 | AHO Course Updates, Studio AHO

Here is the reading material for the scenario workshop with Suzanne Stein from Ontario Academy of the Arts (www.ocad.ca).

Read before the workshop starts.

 

 2020MediaFutures_TrendsPackage_toPartners_for_distribution_4_.pdf

 leonardoFutureForesightingLdoc.pdf

 popper_how_are_foresight_methods_selected.pdf

 

Here are the presentations:

 Oslo_final_day_1_for_distribution.pdf

  Oslo_v1_day_3.pdf  

 

Here are additional readings recieaved form Suzanne Stein

 Buchanan_Wicked_Problems_DT.pdf  

 Gordon_A_FutureSavvy_Ch6_Drivers_Blockers_andTrends.pdf

 HowToBuildScenarios1.pdf

 Leverage_Points.pdf

 RittelWeber_Dilemmas.pdf

 DesignFiction_WebEdition.pdf

 Extending_Foresight_Ruben_Nelson_final.pdf

 

New Trends:

Social

  • Norskglish: Norskglish describes the typical way to communicate in Norway between the natives and the migrants.
  • IMMIGRANTS SPATIAL CONCENTRATION :  Immigrants tend to live concentrated in the same city area mainly because of different economical resources in relation to the original/majority group.
  • Working everywhere means working at home: The Internet connects you to the world, so why not just stay at home and work?

Technology

  • Automatic living : Chip-marking products and enabling the environment to read and process the information, will make everyday living more automatic .
  • smart cities: a high-tech sustainable city based on existing strutures
  • NO NEED TO LEARN NEW LANGUAGES:  Simultaneous translation by internet to the earphones

Economic

  • Emission indulgences (transportation): As soon the CO2 at the stock-markets swings, your conscience can worry about other things….! 🙂
  • Communal living spaces: Individual use of a common and shared property for economic efficiency
  • Short Food:  Trying to keep the food prices down by minimizing ‘the distance‘ between the producers and the buyers.
  • New Consumerism: Need for radical reconfiguration of values by a new trading  system where the ownership becomes a lease
  • Big Language gets bigger: (Human Capital) to understand each other is efficient

Environment

  • Food as biofuel: Using crops to make biofuel instead of feeding the starving people.
  • Sustainable Food: Food Production is done sustainable, both ecological and economical
  • CATCH YOUR OWN FISH: Instead of buying poor quality food, one can use local resources by growing own food, catching fish and putting work in doing so. As part of driving from products towards (self)services.
  • Cars as cities enemies: Reduce car use in urban centres to protect it from pollution and heavy traffic

Political

  • Need for social housing: With the increase of housing prices and life’s cost, social housing will be a need for a important part of the population.
  • SUPERPOWERS NEED SUPERPOWER: Emerging new asian superpowers become world’s biggest energy consumers
  • Immigration Degradation: Welfare stands in the way of integration
  • Food or Fuel, nice or cruel: In the few years the focus on biofuel in the westen countries have pushed the crop/food prices up, resulting in farmers selling food for fuel instead of feeding people

Values

  • Face-to-face playfulness in the city: More and more face to face playful meet-up are happening in public spaces, enabled by the viral power of the social media.
  • Filling up Ethically: In the last few years, biofuel has become a bigger ethical issue. Increase production has pushed thousands into poverty but algae is chagning things, allowing people to make a moral choice for people of environment.
  • “Hermit Crab”: A desire for more privacy, to live more in solitude or connected only to a smaller group of people.

Drivers from Workshop:

  • Increased connectivity
  • Green and social conscience
  • Increased sense of responsibility
  • Climate changes
  • Oil shortage
  • Rising cost of oil
  • Mobility
  • Real time information retrieval
  • Sharing instead of owning
  • Automatic efficiency
  • Anti-consumerism
  • Need to belong to peers on a global scale
  • Power/money/profit

Goal: What is your solution / innovation?

Present:

  • Describe your innovation
  • What world(s) does it work best in? and,
  • What are you strategies to make it come true?

How?:

take your challenge for a walk

  • Review all worlds and discuss the different solutions / innovations you would pose for each.
  • List your possible strategies and rank them in terms of effectiveness for each world: H, M, L
  • Keep all strategies that are H in each world.
  • Discuss any strategy that is M – or a mix of H&M – make decisions and note where your strategies are ranking as L – relatively ineffective.
  • Develop signposts (signal) to alert you if we  (Oslo) are tipping into a state that is NOT favoureable to your strategy

Preferred Future:

If there is a world best poised to have a  solution to your challenge,  explain why

  • What does your solution / innovation look like? What strategies and design elements are you using to ensure its success?
  • How do ensure that this world will come true – make a timeline of events (it is your preferred future)